Prediction #3: Ransomware Attacks to Morph into Two-Stage Extortion Campaigns

In McAfee’s 2019 threat predictions report, we predicted cyber criminals would partner more closely to boost threats; over the course of the year, we observed exactly that. Ransomware groups used pre-infected machines from other malware campaigns, or used remote desktop protocol (RDP) as an initial launch point for their campaign. These types of attacks required collaboration between groups. This partnership drove efficient, targeted attacks which increased profitability and caused more economic damage. In fact,  Europol’s Internet Organised Crime Threat Assessment (IOCTA), named ransomware the top threat that companies, consumers, and the public sector faced in 2019.

Based on what McAfee Advanced Threat Research (ATR) is seeing in the underground, we expect criminals to exploit their extortion victims even more moving forward. The rise of targeted ransomware created a growing demand for compromised corporate networks. This demand is met by criminals who specialize in penetrating corporate networks and sell complete network access in one-go.

For 2020, we predict the targeted penetration of corporate networks will continue to grow and ultimately give way to two-stage extortion attacks. In the first stage cybercriminals will deliver a crippling ransomware attack, extorting victims to get their files back. In the second stage criminals will target the recovering ransomware victims again with an extortion attack, but this time they will threaten to disclose the sensitive data stolen before the ransomware attack.

During our research on Sodinobiki we observed two-stage attacks, with cryptocurrency miners installed before an actual ransomware attack took place. For 2020, we predict that cybercriminals will increasingly exfiltrate sensitive corporate information prior to a targeted ransomware attack to sell the stolen data online or to extort the victim and increase monetization.